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| <back | home A Peek Beyond the Peak: Heinberg in Venice by Margaret Morris On July 16, the United Methodist Church of Venice hosted a gathering under the sponsorship of the Post Carbon Institute dealing literally with the end of civilization as we know it. Richard Heinberg, one of the world’s most respected experts on peak oil, spoke to a group of 50 to 60 people about the impending depletion of the world’s petroleum reserves and how best to meet the challenges this presents. He is a professor of ecology and author of Powerdown — Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World and The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies. Professor Heinberg rapidly outlined the problem, with which most of HopeDance’s readers are all too familiar: the demand for petroleum, indeed modern society’s overwhelming dependence on this substance, is about to meet an ever-increasing reduction in supply, as producers dip into the less-desirable second half of the planet’s resources. At times, the issue of denial captured the group’s attention: how to present the magnitude of the problem and the severity of the consequences in a way that people currently unaffected could absorb it. Heinberg admitted that when he took time from his work to go outside and do ordinary household tasks, he himself fell into the illusion of normality and some of his sense of urgency dissipated However, he broached the possibility that the U.S. Department of Energy and its corporate clients may be ready to allow a dose of reality as presented to them in the Hirsch Report, an analysis commissioned by the department. (http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf). Robert Hirsch, reporting on the “Peaking of World Oil Production,” uses phrases like “unprecedented risk management problem” and “without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented.” Hirsch also addresses exaggeration of “proven reserves” and the lead time necessary to mitigate economic consequences — ten years prior to peak for any significant lessening and twenty years optimally, and this with all-out effort and investment. Unfortunately, Heinberg estimates the peak as rather soon, around 2007, perhaps sooner. Both Heinberg and Hirsch state unequivocally that market forces operate too slowly to deal with a problem requiring early intervention. After the lecture, the audience formed small groups to exchange ideas and resources. Participants formed a wide range across generations from college age through very senior citizens. A variety of occupations were also represented, mostly professionals, some emeritus. The majority were from Los Angeles environs, although I encountered five people from Ventura, and there might have been others. As a side observation: in my group, dealing with food security, women outnumbered men five to three, a reversal of the general make-up of the gathering. One of my group mates, Brad, an urban farmer living in the Los Angeles Eco-village, remarked that this was a recapitulation of prehistoric labor division wherein the women invented agriculture while the men went off to hunt and kill game (and sometimes each other!) The power being sought here, however, was not military might or tribal hegemony, but survival strategies. Other groups struggled with issues of power, water, education, political advocacy, economics and transportation. I’m happy to say our food group generated a flood of ideas and resources — such as raising great quantities of food and small livestock on ordinary suburban lots (www.pathtofreedom.com), working with the state’s Master Gardener Program, learning about nutritious weeds and guides to plant pharmaceuticals, watching films such as “The Greening of Cuba” and “The Future of Food,” participating in community gardens, and much, much more. Permaculture was specifically praised by all. Professor Heinberg seemed older and thinner than during his appearance at Casa de Maria last year. Since then, he has traveled and lectured extensively. He stated that he was more optimistic now because of the level of awareness he found outside the States and because of a conversation he had with a colleague while traveling concerning the Uppsala or Oil Depletion Protocol. Briefly, the protocol involves an international pact for no country to produce oil above its current depletion levels and each country to reduce oil imports to match current world depletion rates. Meanwhile strict conservation would be observed and alternative energy strategies initiated. “Now there is a plan,” Heinberg said. “And the thing about this plan is that unlike the Kyoto Agreement, in which the countries that don’t sign on have an economic advantage, everyone, even small countries that agree will be advantaged regardless of what the larger countries do. They will be in better shape later by preparing their people for the inevitable, for oil depletion will happen regardless. That isn’t negotiable.” He encouraged those present to lobby their local governments to endorse the Uppsala Protocol, especially after making diligent preparation for presenting the idea. You can find the protocol in the current Museletter (http://www.museletter.com/archive/160.html). Margaret Morris is a regular contributor to HopeDance and is the editor of the Ventura Section. <back | top^ |