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| <back | home Demand the Answer by Mark Phillips Peak Oil! The end of cheap gas! Is that a bad thing? Could this is a blessing in disguise? Will Peak Oil stress our society to the point of breakdown? I hope not. Or could this be a golden opportunity. I don’t deny the possibility of Peak Oil, but we can meet the challenge from the reduction in supply with an equal reduction in demand for fossil fuel. It is in the demand side of the equation where the potential for positive change exists. And that change IS possible, but it will be a challenge. And it is this challenge that will motivate us to adapt from the end of the Age of Oil into the dawn of the Age of Sustainability or better still, an Age of Reason. What is Peak Oil? It is about reaching the top of the curve of oil production, after which less oil is available and each barrel gets harder and more expensive to extract. It isn’t about running out of oil, just a reduction in supply. The Peak Oil case has been well laid out. You can find excellent coverage in books such as Richard Heinberg’s "Powerdown" and "The Party’s Over" as well as on websites such as the Association of the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) at www.aspo.net as well as the previous issue of HopeDance. When one looks at the graphs of projected oil supply from these resources, you’ll notice there is a broad plateau and a gradual drop in supply over the range of several years. And herein lies the key. It will be the rate of supply reduction that will dictate the pain level and our ability to adapt. Change is inevitable; we can’t avoid that fact. It is our ability to anticipate change that determines the level of discomfort we feel. If the drop-off in oil supply is sudden and unexpected, such as in the 1974-75 gas crunch, the effect on our economy and our lives could be traumatic. But if the change is anticipated, steady and gradual, we can meet the challenge individually and collectively. And yet, even with sudden change, we adapt. If the rate of change is not drastic, then we will see the reduction of supply as a steady increase in the price of fuel, much as we have seen this past summer. This economic pressure will increase the attractiveness of energy efficiency. Energy efficiency doesn’t have to be difficult and it can be relatively cheap compared to increasing supply. Don’t just take my word. How about taking one of this country’s leading experts on energy, Amory Lovins, of the Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org). He has just published a book titled "Winning the Oil Endgame." This excellent and extensive report looks at how we can match the challenge of the end of the Age of Oil, and move through the transition successfully. Not only is it a positive book, but it is positively FREE (downloadable from www.oilendgame.org). It’s a detailed roadmap on how we can "powerdown" from our current oil gluttony, with minimal pain and even a potential for profit and enhanced security. Granted, it’s not the easiest book to read; it’s full of charts, graphs and technical details that only an engineer would love. If you have an aversion to this level of detail, skim over it and just chew on that tasty tail and claw. Amory lays out four options, each of which contribute to reducing demand for fossil fuel. And through the synergistic combination of all four options, we can drastically decouple our oil addiction. The following is a brief description of these options: Option #1: Efficient use of oil Efficiency is the low-hanging fruit of this problem. Amory goes into great detail on how this has and will manifest in autos, especially hybrids. The proliferation and market success of current hybrids, such as the Toyota Prius, is an example of how this area can effect our demand without pain. And he feels that a large potential for wringing out efficiency hasn’t even been tapped, such as weight reduction. Once we combine ultra-lightweight chassis with hybrid drives, we can double the efficiency of these cars. And this kind of efficiency-hunting can happen in all areas where we use oil today Option#2: Substituting biofuels Ethanol, methanol and biodiesel are fuels that can be made from plants. This existing technology can be expanded. The feedstocks for these fuels can utilize woody materials and agricultural waste that are currently wasted. This option not only can minimize our oil problem, but also bring money back into our rural economies. Option #3: Substituting saved natural gas By using electricity more efficiently, we can reduce our demand for natural gas. This gas can be used in areas were we currently use oil. Also, it will provide the preliminary feedstock for the hydrogen option. Option #4: Substituting hydrogen Hydrogen has been on the horizon for some time. And while critics say it will always be out of reach, this technology is accelerating. The first three options can provide the bridge to the transition into hydrogen, which many believe will be the ultimate goal for our energy future. And while hydrogen currently comes from natural gas, it is predicted that it will eventually come from renewable sources. For further info, check out Twenty Hydrogen Myths at the Rocky Mountain Institute (www.rmi.org). The answer to winning the oil endgame won’t be any one of these options or any "silver bullet" but will be a combination of all of them. And while technology and business will play their part in this challenge, the largest player will be you! We all have a piece of the puzzle in manifesting the future we want to live in. The gauntlet has been thrown down in the name of Peak Oil. It’s up to us to meet the challenge of transitioning from the Age of Oil into a new Age of Reason. Mark Phillips is a Mechanical Engineer living in Santa Barbara, CA. He can be reached at mark@ecotierra.com. <back | top^ |